Finansinių naujienų portalo „Econostream Media“ interviu su Gediminu Šimkumi, Lietuvos banko valdybos pirmininku. Interviu paskelbtas 2025 m. vasario 20 d.
Q: Governor, some of your colleagues like to say that the direction is clear, others prefer not to say this. Everyone agrees that there is huge uncertainty. Is the direction clear and how can it be under extreme uncertainty?
A: There are many big risks around our target, so uncertainty is very high. But whether we’re talking about tariff threats and likely retaliatory measures, or about economic weakness in the context of the complicated and evolving geopolitical situation, these risks are two-sided with respect to inflation. This highly uncertain environment naturally leads to less willingness to make claims about the future, because nobody knows what will happen. If we abstract from all the risks and assess the data we have, then we see that the euro area economy is sluggish: we’ve already revised down our 2025 growth projection several times and will probably lower it again in March. Meanwhile, our best information points to diminishing wage pressures, and we expect headline inflation to return to 2% this year and remain somewhere near 2% next year and the year after. It is worth reiterating that this is in the context of sluggish economic activity. The natural question is, will we need a restrictive monetary policy if inflation converges to the target? Obviously not. And yet, interest rates are still in restrictive territory at the moment. Therefore, I agree that the direction of travel is clear. We are not able to be precise about the pace and the path of rate cuts, but it’s clear that we are moving interest rates downwards, and I don’t see any good reason not to do another rate cut in March. We’ll see about April and June. But overall, the direction of travel is clear, and for me, the next move is clear.
Q: You observed that we’re still in restrictive territory now. And after the cut in March?
A: This brings us to the discussion of where the neutral rate is. I understand that it is easier to think and communicate about it as a concrete numerical estimate; however, I tend to think about it as an area of rates, even if the area is not wide. And I consider the nominal neutral rate to be in an area around 2%, which is consistent with the research just published by the ECB. So, yes, after March we will still be in restrictive territory. However, as we approach this neutral rate area, I think we should avoid placing too much emphasis on being above or below it, given the significant uncertainties surrounding these estimates.
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